- Betting Odds Fluctuations Vs
- Betting Odds Fluctuations Today
- Betting Odds Fluctuations Calculator
- Betting Odds Fluctuations Against
Every bettor is looking for ways to beat the bookie. To become a consistently profitable bettor though, a deep understanding of odds calculation is only half of the story; the other half is knowing how bookmakers operate. In this article we lift the lid on the methods that keep both bookmakers and professional bettors profitable.
College Basketball Betting Tip: While big payouts are exciting, making a habit out of betting parlays will lead to volatile fluctuations of your bankroll. Teasers – Like a parlay, teasers require more than one pick, and all picks in your teaser must hit. Bettors like teasers because it is a way to move multiple point spreads (or totals) to. The team studied 10 years’ worth of data on nearly half a million football matches and the associated odds offered by 32 bookmakers between January 2005 and June 2015.
Making a book, inbetting parlance, refers to laying betson the outcomes of an event. The term originates from the practice of recording bets in a hard-boundledger, giving the English language the termbookmaker.
Bookmakers have been around for thousands of years in one form or another. The role of bookmakers is similar to that of a stockbroker. They accept money from multiple people on various outcomes and after the event is finished they pay out the winners. In return for this service, they get a fee (known as the margin) and their goal is to make a profit.
The mathematics of bookmaking
Online betting companies employ a team of people, usually referred to as traders or odds compilers. Their job is to set the odds based on a mixture of statistical probabilities and public opinion with the aim to closely represent the chance of every outcome, plus the margin.
Accounting for all the variables in any event is not an easy job. For every match the traders have to account for the form of the squad, injuries of key players, the referee, influence of the crowd etc. By considering all the variables, they first calculate the real chance of an occurrence and then price in the margin.
Below are the Pinnacle’ odds for the match Leicester City vs. Norwich City on Saturday, 27th February.
| Odds | Implied Probability | |
| Leicester City | 1.531 | 65.32% |
| Draw | 6.810 | 14.68% |
| Norwich | 4.540 | 22.03% |
If you add up the probabilities, you will notice that you get 102.3%, meaning that the bookmaker has a profit margin of 2.3%, assuming balanced action on all sides.
A match can be priced anywhere between 101% and 120% depending on the market and the betting activity. Premier League matches for example are typically priced up to around 104% according to Oddsportal.com
All strategic long-term bettors seek to maximize their returns by obtaining the highest odds possible. The higher the margins of a bookmaker, the poorer their odds offering is, as margins can affect your long-term profitability
Betting Odds Fluctuations Vs
It is extremely important that you know the margins the bookmaker you bet with is offering. If they offer popular markets like the Premier League at greater than 104%, you are better off shopping around for a bookmaker with lower margin. For less popular leagues, markets of 110% or more are the norm.
Understanding odds fluctuation
Unlike the bettors, who try to predict the outcome of a match in order to make money, traders don't gamble. Their priority is to ensure that they get bets on the outcomes of all outcomes proportionally (commonly known as “balance the book”), so that they make a profit regardless of which outcome prevails.
Once the odds are published, the traders closely monitor the flow of the stakes and how they are distributed among the different outcomes. If the bets are placed according to the traders’ calculations, then the odds will remain stable. If, on the other hand, a disproportionally large amount of money is placed on one side of a bet, the odds will be recalculated.
Let's take the Leicester City vs. Norwich City match from above and assume that 100 bettors placed their $1 worth bets as follows:
| Odds | Bets distribution | |
| Leicester City | 1.531 | 75% |
| Draw | 6.810 | 10% |
| Norwich City | 4.540 | 15% |
If Leicester wins, the bookmaker will collect $100, but will have to pay out $75*1.531 = $114.825. In this case, the software used by the traders will start to indicate a loss and the odds will be readjusted.
These adjustments are continuous and performed by all bookmakers in an attempt to keep their books balanced. It is the fluctuation of odds that allows for arbitrage betting, also referred to as “sure bets”.
Consistent profit making
An arbitrage bet utilizes odds from across different bookmakers by placing bets on each of the option resulting in the aggregate margin in the bettor’s favour, hence producing a proportionate profit.
Pinnacle are widely regarded to offer margins as low as 1.5% for soccer and baseball and apply a low margin policy to all markets posted, with any of the widely available arbitrage softwares often highlightening Pinnacle on one side of an arbitrage.
Now that you know how bookmakers make money, you are one step ahead of the average bettor. For a detailed analysis of how to apply arbitrage in practice, here’s a detailed article on The basics of an arbitrage betting strategy. A must read for anyone who aspires to become a professional sports bettor.
How bookmakers make money video explainer
Found this article useful? Why not check out our video that details how bookmakers make money.
If you want to watch more educational betting videos, subscribe to the Pinnacle YouTube channel!
Today's Results Info File Download
Betting Odds Fluctuations Today
A new feature exclusively for members. This download will update throughout the day, giving a summary of the race along with the in-play odds movements as they happened. This is a unique extract that will help you build a picture of patterns, fluctuations and help support trading the volatility of in play horse racing.
The in-play odds are shown in separate columns, time stamping of odds are just over 1 recording a second (more like 3 stampings every 2 seconds).
This will allow members to build up some valuable, exclusive data in an easy to manipulate format. Perfect for those of you involved, or wanting to become involved in in-play trading, specifically Back to Lay or Lay to Back where the basic in-play minimum and in-play maximum figure doesn't paint the full picture.
*Please refer to Disclaimer below.
Today's Horse Racing Results Info File Download
This feature is for Advanced Members only. If you are already an Advanced Member, please sign in first.
Betting Odds Fluctuations Calculator
Example Screen shots
Betting Odds Fluctuations Against
*Disclaimer
In-play odds movement are highly volatile. The displayed is captured at roughly 3 times every 2 seconds and is subject to the availability and accuracy of the provider as well as assuming the market allowed trading in-play.
Where a market suspends and re-opens after the conclusion of a race (photo finish or judges call) the odds movement shown is only during the race taking place itself, i.e. - we don't publish the trading odds after the race has concluded as these markets can re-open for several minutes while a decision is made.
The pre-race odds do not account for any late withdrawals or non runner declarations that may be made just before the start that could affect the movement of odds of other horses.
While we make every effort to ensure the data is reliable and accurate, we can not be responsible for how or where the data is used.